Wells Fargo Championship

Wells Fargo Championship

There’s no hiding that It was a very disappointing week for us at the Byron Nelson with three of our team of five failing to make the cut while the other two, Martin Laird and Tom Hoge failed to get seriously in to the mix.

Laird did sit nicely at the halfway stage but a poor back nine on Saturday saw him tumble down the leaderboard and effectively end our week.

The event itself was won by Taylor Pendrith who after several near misses finally landed his maiden tour title after a dramatic battle with Ben Kohles down the stretch. Kohles who hails from nearby Dallas had the event in the palm of his hand as he was green side in the rough in two on the par five 18^th however a duffed chip followed by a missed par putt from five feet lead to a bogey six and in doing so he gifted the event to Pendrith. A reminder then that winning, and particularly for the first time on the PGA Tour, never comes easily.

So onwards we go and this week it is time for one of the regular tour events, The Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow.

Quail Hollow has been the host course for the event since the inception of the tournament in 2003 with two previous exceptions, firstly in 2017 when the event was held at Eagle Point Golf Club in Wilmington, whilst Quail Hollow prepared to host the 2017 PGA Championship later in the year and in 2022 when the event moved awa . This year similarly the Charlotte track is hosting the Presidents Cup hence the regular Tour stop heads elsewhere.

For the second year running the event takes its position as an Elevated Event, however this year it also is subject to the ‘no cut, limited field’ treatment, that we are now familiar with. As a result we have a field of 68 teeing it up made up from the top 50 eligible from last year, the ‘next ten’, the ‘swing five’ and sponsor exemptions.

With Scottie Scheffler skipping the event due to the imminent birth of his first child the market is headed up by proven course specialist Rory McIlroy. McIlroy is then followed by Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg and defending Champion Wyndham Clark.

COURSE

The course is a George Cobb design, which has undergone subsequent redesigns under the supervision of Tom Fazio both in 2013 and 2016.

The course is a Par 71 and measures 7600 yards.

One important point to note is that from 2003 until 2016 the course played as a par 72 playing at just under 7600 yards but following the Fazio redesign prior to the hosting of the 2017 PGA Championship the course was changed to a Par 71.

This change was effected by reducing the 570 yard Par 5 5^th to a 450 yard Par 4.

Following on from this the Par 4 1^st hole was lengthened by approximately 100 yards to measure just over 520 yards. The par 3 2^nd hole disappeared completely and a new Par 3 4^th hole was built to replace this.

The greens are Champion Bermudagrass. These were changed from Miniverde Bermuda again in the run up to the 2017 PGA Championship.

HISTORY

As mentioned above the event has been held at Quail Hollow every year since it’s inception with the exception of 2017 & 2022. We can therefore dismiss those two editions from our thoughts, however in addition to the years of course history we have here we should also focus on 2017’s PGA Championship.

So let’s take a look at the winners on this course since 2010 including the 2017 winner of the PGA;

2023 Wyndham Clark

2021 Rory McIlroy

2019 Max Homa

2018 Jason Day

2017 Justin Thomas [PGA CHAMPIONSHIP]

2016 James Hahn

2015 Rory McIlroy

2014 JB Holmes

2013 Derek Ernst

2012 Rickie Fowler

2011 Lucas Glover

2010 Rory McIlroy

So, what does this list tell us? Well, there’s no doubt that seven of these winners could all be bracketed as class proven winners who can ‘get it out there’ off the tee with the majority renowned more for their tee to green game than their skills on and around the greens.

There have though been four ‘curve ball’ winners over those years in the form of the 2019 winner Max Homa, James , last years champion Clark and, arguably the biggest shock winner on the PGA Tour in the last 15 years or so [alongside Adam Long], Derek Ernst. Clark it should be noted though has certainly gone on to prove his win here was no fluke!

One interesting point to note though is the year’s Hahn and Ernst won the scoring conditions were by far the toughest over that ten year period as they won with scores of -9 and -8 respectively.

We should also note that the 2019 edition was the first time the event had been played a fortnight before the years second Major, The PGA Championship and it is possible that Max Homa’s win has set a precedent for some more leftfield winners here while the bigger names present are playing with one eye on tuning up for the PGA.

Following on with this angle and while McIlroy’s 2021 triumph was a return to the norm Wyndham Clark’s victory certainly adds credence to the above thought and with the event this year coming the week before the years second Major it is quite possible this pattern will continue, particularly as several leading names have not played since the RBC Heritage.

Focusing on the 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2023 editions, the ones held since the changes made for the PGA Championship, and it was certainly the case that we have seen some bigger hitters coming to the fore with Clark, McIlroy and Day at the time of his win all seen as long off the tee, although 2019 champion Homa was only slightly above average in distance off the tee at the time.

Course history in general has over the years been a reasonable pointer here with Glover, Holmes and Fowler along with Day and McIlroy [second & third time around] all having a previous top ten finish here prior to their victories, however Clark, Hahn, Ernst and Homa to name four had done nothing here prior to winning.

Form coming in of past winners has been fairly hit and miss though with Clark last year along with Day, McIlroy, Holmes, Fowler and O’Hair winning here when in strong form but Homa, Glover, Ernst and Hahn of course on the back of his eight consecutive missed cuts were all struggling for form when coming in.

I stated in past years that historically, and similarly to Bay Hill, taking care of the par 5s has been key to getting the job done at Quail Hollow, and that in addition to Rory and Tiger two other past winners of the Wells Fargo, Glover and O’Hair, also had solid records at Bay Hill.

However in 2018 I speculated that with the course now only containing three par 5s, that par 4 scoring would potentially be as or even more paramount.

Well, if we look at the 2018 final leaderboard we saw that the winner Day was a past Bay Hill champion and that in addition 2018 Bay Hill runner up Dechambeau was fourth here. Meanwhile 2019’s final leaderboard saw Keith Mitchell who had previously finished fifth at Bay Hill featuring prominently. Meanwhile last year Harris English performed well here for us on the back of a big result at Bay Hill while API specialist Tyrrell Hatton posted a top five. Meanwhile to rubber stamp the link last years champion here Wyndham Clark produced a big week at Bay Hill this year.

From a winning score point of view we have seen Max Homa and Jason Day get the job done with totals of 14- under and 12- under respectively since the course changes were made and then McIlroy triumphed with 10- under. Last year though Clark blew the field away with a 19- under total.

WEATHER FORECAST

The days leading in to the tournament show a decent chance of thunderstorms and Thursday itself looks like it could also face disruption with a strong storm in the forecast. From there on in though touch wood we have a dry week predicted.

Temperatures are in the mid 80s for the early part of the week but after Thursday’s storm look set to cool down to the low to mid 70s.

Along with Thursday’s storm the wind could well be the main talking point this week with gusts of 25mph + in the forecast Thursday, Friday and Sunday.

PICK

I have gone with four players this week as follows;

SAHITH THEEGALA –  25/1 - 2pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8

First cab off the rank this week is Sahith Theegala.

As regular readers will know I am a big fan of Theegala’s both from the point of view of how he plays the game and his potential high ceiling.

Since bagging his maiden tour win last Fall Sahith has  gone from strength to strength notching five top tens this year. Importantly for this week one of those came at the API where he finished sixth to give us that all important link.

Meanwhile a look back at the previous two seasons shows us top ten finishes at Muirfield Village, Riviera, Torey Pines and of course Augusta, again all tracks, which to me tie well here.

Sahith is currently 23^rd from tee to green and 38^th in approach while he is also flourishing on the greens, ranked eighth on the dance floor so all components are working well. Meanwhile at 27^th in Driving Distance he has the length to thrive here.

The next step for Theegala is to land one of these big events to fully ‘break through’ and on a track that has seen numerous ‘young guns’ land break out wins here over the years I can see Theegals being the next to step up here.

JUSTIN THOMAS –  33/1 – 1.5pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 6

Next up I am going to take the bait dangled on Justin Thomas.

2024 has been an odd year for JT to date as having initially looked like he was trending in to some better form he lost his way in the spring and after a missed cut at Sawgrass and a poor week at the Valspar he dispensed with services of Jim ‘Bones’ Mackay.

Following this split Thomas didn’t fare much better in his first week with Matt Minister, [Patrick Cantlay’s old caddie] on the bag at Augusta where he again missed the cut.

After that disappointment though JT regrouped at Hilton Head to post a fifth place finish closing out with a Sunday 65 meaning that despite the off weeks noted he has five top 12 finishes, including three top six, in ten starts so far this year.

Furthermore JT’s putter, which has been a source of big problems this year, seeing him ranked 157^th, turned a corner that week as he ranked 15^th on the greens. Meanwhile he continues to deliver with his approach play, ranked seventh on that front this year.

The winner of course of his first Major at Quail Hollow in 2017 JT clearly has an affinity for the track and he played nicely here last year again to finish 14^th even though his game was heading in to a slump at the time.

With most big names having an eye on next week I expect JT to be fully focused on the job in hand here as he looks to get back to elite form and I’m happy to chance him at the odds.

RICKIE FOWLER –  60-1 - 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 6

Another player who has always enjoyed his time at Quail Hollow is Rickie Fowler.

Fowler landed his maiden tour title here in 2012 and he has added two further fourth place finishes here since.

After his return to form last year 2024 has been a disappointment for Fowler to date however last time out he built on a solid 30^th at Augusta to finish 18^th at Hilton Head. Furthermore a look at Rickie’s stats that week show us that his approach play for, which he ranked 18^th was firing nicely with the putter the club holding him back.

Similarly to Thomas I expect Fowler to be fully focused on the job in hand and he looks good value to me to produce once more at one of his favourite tracks on tour.

PATRICK RODGERS – 80-1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 10

Finally its back to the well with Patrick Rodgers.

It’s been a strange year for Rodgers to date as having snuck in to the top 50 at the end of last season he has produced a run of feast or famine performances so far with three top tens at the Farmers, in Mexico and mostly recently at the Heritage where he bounced back to form with a fifth place after a run of poor results.

On to this week then and in addition to strong finishes at correlating courses such as Bay Hill and Muirfield Village over the years we can take heart from Patrick’s runner up finish at Quail Hollow back on debut here in 2015.

Quail Hollow as noted earlier has seen break through wins for many ‘highly touted’ players as in addition of course to McIlroy’s first triumph here we have seen Fowler, Homa and Clark all come good here.

With plenty of big names having their eye on next week then I’ll take my chances that Rodgers can follow in their footsteps and deliver that long overdue first title here.